The policy on speculation is that it's not allowed except in obvious instances where we can rightly assume things given all available evidence, at which point it's not even speculation, it's inference.
I already replied to your comment about Princess D'Elise. FWIW the title of Princess can be used for official leaders, see Princess#Princess as a substantive title on Wikipedia. We're very well aware that it's a Kingdom and not a Principality, but lacking any shred of evidence of a higher authority in the country, we can infer that Princess D'Elise is the head of state at the moment of AC7.
I see no speculation in the Ugellas article on its role in the Continental War. Again, all of that can be inferred. ISAF held all non-Erusea territory before the war pushed them back, and since it shares a border with Erusea, Ugellas was obviously one of the first to fall since Erusea pushed eastward, and then ISAF came to their rescue. I don't see how any of that is speculatory.